The United States has secured preferential access to Ukraine’s untapped rare-earth & critical-minerals deposits; Canada’s role as a supplier to the U.S. is now facing both competitive & strategic headwinds:

1. Increased Competition & Price Pressure
   
   New supply source: Ukraine holds sizable reserves of rare earths (e.g., titanium, graphite, lithium, manganese) that the U.S. has historically sourced almost entirely from China. With the April 30, 2025 agreement, the U.S. gains preferential off-takers’ rights, potentially diverting orders that might otherwise go to Canadian exporters.
   
   Downward price risks: As Ukrainian production ramps up, global rare-earth prices could soften. Canadian miners would need to adjust margins or reduce costs to remain competitive.
   
   
2. Strategic & Logistical Advantages Still Favor Canada
   
   Stable investment climate: Canada offers long-standing legal certainty, deep processing infrastructure (e.g., Saskatchewan’s rare-earth refinery projects), & robust environmental/social governance (ESG) frameworks, which Ukraine is still building.
   
   Geographic proximity and trade ties: Under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement & existing critical-minerals partnerships, Canadian mines benefit from lower transportation costs & streamlined regulatory corridors compared to Ukraine.
   
   
3. Opportunity to Differentiate & Expand
   
   Value-added processing: To counter new competition, Canadian firms can invest further downstream (refining, alloy production, recycling) to capture more of the value chain rather than selling raw concentrates.
   
   Strengthen defense supply ties: Given Canada’s key role in meeting U.S. defense-industry mineral needs, Ottawa & Ottawa-based producers can negotiate long-term offtake contracts that emphasize security of supply over spot-market pricing.

MPI's Bottom Line: While U.S. access to Ukraine’s resources introduces fresh competitors & could erode some market share or pricing power for Canadian producers, Canada’s mature mining sector, closer ties with U.S. defense & industrial policymakers, & investment in processing capacity mean it will remain a cornerstone supplier—particularly for companies & agencies prioritizing reliability, ESG performance & North American supply-chain resilience.

LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT AND CEO
April 14, 2025

Dear Lewis,

Increasing trade tensions with China, and China’s willingness to limit the export of strategic minerals to the U.S., underscore the ongoing and deep vulnerabilities in America's mineral supply chains. In response, a range of actions—from President Trump's minerals-focused executive order to legislation in Congress—signal a strategic alignment of U.S. economic and national security priorities.

On March 20, President Trump issued the “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production” Executive Order, designed to reduce reliance on foreign minerals and accelerate domestic production. The order charges the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) with prioritizing permitting and mineral projects, focusing specifically on uranium, copper and lithium. Additionally, the order invokes the Defense Production Act to secure supply chains and provide financial support for new mining initiatives. By coordinating resources and aligning production capabilities, this order will underpin infrastructure development, national security and technological innovation.

On Capitol Hill, the Critical Mineral Consistency Act was reintroduced by Senators Lee (R-Utah) and Kelly (D-Ariz.), alongside Reps. Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Lee (D-Nev.). This bipartisan, bicameral legislation seeks to streamline the classification of critical minerals, aligning the Critical Materials List maintained by the Department of Energy with the Critical Minerals List curated by the U.S. Geological Survey. By harmonizing these lists, the act ensures transparency and consistency across federal agencies, to produce more of the minerals our economy needs.

Additionally, the Mining Regulatory Clarity Act (S. 544) passed out of Committee with bipartisan support. This important bill, which is absolutely necessary to provide mining companies with the certainty needed to conduct mining operations on public lands, now moves to the full Senate.

Let’s keep up the momentum to reduce our dependence on imports and expand domestic mining. We must seize this moment to unlock America’s mineral potential and build a resilient economy for future generations.

Thank you,

Rich Nolan
National Mining Association (NMA)
President and CEO

Dear Lewis,

America’s military capabilities depend on a stable and robust supply of minerals. The Department of Defense (DOD) uses up to 750,000 tons of minerals annually when manufacturing military gear, weapon systems and other defense applications. However, those minerals are increasingly dependent on nations such as China and Russia, placing U.S. national defense and the men and women who defend our freedom in a precarious situation.

To address our foreign reliance, the DOD is actively awarding grant and loan resources to American companies mining the minerals essential to its operations. The DOD awarded $15 million to Perpetua Resources so the U.S. can enjoy a fully independent antimony trisulphide supply chain that will be used to support America’s munitions.

Domestic nickel and lithium supply chains are also seeing increased defense funding. As a response to China’s recently imposed export restrictions on graphite, the DOD entered into a $37.5 million agreement with Graphite One to strengthen American graphite supply chains. Working to build out production of this mineral – and many others – is essential not just to American mineral security, but to our national security, and this kind of support for domestic capacity is a strong first step that we would like to see replicated at potential projects across the country.

Outside the DOD, however, progress has been less apparent. The Biden administration’s Interagency Working Group (IWG) Recommendations to Improve Mining on Public Lands report was sorely disappointing. Where we hoped to see permitting reform and support for domestic mines, instead we saw new taxes and royalties that will discourage companies from starting new projects.

In another misstep, the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council (FPISC) has issued a proposed rule to limit the types of mineral projects available under the FAST-41 permitting process. This new rule – if adopted – would further hinder domestic mining projects. All minerals are essential to our economic and national security and should be considered under the expedited permitting process.

On the supply chain front, the administration desperately needs to reprioritize. The U.S. should be focusing first on mining here at home, where we have abundant and untapped reserves, and where we know mining will be done in accordance with the world’s strongest environmental and labor standards. Instead, we see an almost singular focus on the pursuit of a wide range of trade agreements that appear to sidestep Congress’ traditional role in trade. Our minerals security challenge requires a multi-pronged approach, but it must be based on the foundation of domestic mining.

In November, as we celebrate Veterans Day and consider the importance of our national security and the military capability that ensures it, I hope U.S. policymakers will consider the grave consequences of inaction when addressing our mineral supply chains. A strong national defense depends on a strong domestic mining sector capable of supplying its needs.

Dear Lewis,

If the past is any indication of what’s to come, 2023 could mark a minerals mining renaissance.

Minerals took the spotlight in 2022 after a series of global events revealed the fragile nature of supply chains. Unlike ever before, industry experts, business leaders, government officials and members of Congress from both sides of the aisle agreed that the U.S. needs to secure a stable supply of minerals.

Amid economic and geopolitical turmoil, the U.S. came face to face with the need for a strong domestic mining industry and the harsh reality of what can happen when the bedrock of our supply chains – minerals – are controlled by China, Russia and other foreign adversaries. For the average consumer, it took shortages for everything from baby formula to computer chips to finally make one thing abundantly clear: our country cannot continue business as usual when it comes to minerals.

Demand for minerals is only going to accelerate in the future and, in 2022, the Biden administration raised further awareness of the issue by using the Defense Production Act to begin supporting domestic minerals mining. It’s a good start, but much more must be done. As we begin the new year, we must use this momentum to give America’s miners the support they need to succeed.

We saw reports from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, S&P Global and Bank of America calling for more mineral exploration, production and processing to keep up with demand. Mineral processing capacity will need to increase 10-fold for our energy goals alone. To meet this need with domestic resources, we need mineral supply chains in place by 2035. As it stands today, it takes on average 10 years to permit a mine in America. It doesn’t take a mathematician to realize now is the time to act.

Here are some ways we can secure of our mineral supply in 2023:

• Pass commonsense permitting reform policies that speed up the time it takes to approve a mine
• Advance mining projects that have been plagued by permitting delays
• Build mineral processing capabilities within the U.S. to support EV battery manufacturing
• Minimize our mineral imports, which accounted for $90 billion of our country’s budget in 2021

The importance of our industry has never been so widely acknowledged as it is today. The mining industry’s message remains clear: With the right policies in place, U.S. miners are ready to support the world’s mineral needs. To meet our energy goals and set ourselves up for a sustainable future, it’s paramount we pass permitting reform that incentivizes domestic mining. If we do that, we can make 2023 the year we all need it to be.

Thank you,

Rich Nolan
NMA President and CEO

Pamela Cook Ellemers, principal mineral resource manager at De Beers, managed projects across the world and mentors geology students at the University of Calgary.

Kathleen Grandy, senior vice-president, human resources, at Kinross Gold implemented a program that aims to promote conversations about topics such as racism & mental health.

Chafika Eddine, chief sustainability officer at Orla Mining, works on initiatives that encourage women to join the industry & programs for women entrepreneurs.

Dr. Charlotte Gibson is an assistant professor & head of the Critical Minerals Processing Lab at Queen’s University’s mining department.

Dorena Quinn, senior vice-president at Iamgold, brought a focus on “people” to every facet of the company’s strategy.

Jennifer Prospero, senior director of sustainability at Eldorado, helps her team to implement sustainability systems around the world.

Monica Ospina, founder and CEO of O Trade, provides solutions for mining companies to improve their social performance.